Analysis: Why Thailand is at a policy crossroad as ‘last possible qualified’ Shinawatra becomes prime minister

BANGKOK: Several signature policies championed by ousted Thai prime minister Srettha Thavisin hang in the balance under new premier Paetongtarn Shinawatra, who has to proceed with caution after inheriting a government vulnerable to legal scrutiny and weighed down by unfulfilled election promises, political analysts told CNA.
The daughter of powerful former leader Thaksin Shinawatra was sworn in as Thailand’s 31st prime minister on Sunday (Aug 18). It followed the dismissal of Mr Srettha Thavisin by the country’s Constitutional Court less than a year into his premiership for an ethics violation.
Despite her family lineage, Ms Paetongtarn– who turns 38 on Wednesday – is a novice to the machinations and complexities of government, having served only as Pheu Thai party leader in the run-up to last year’s general election and never having held office.
She will need to lean heavily on those with experience around her, including her father, analysts said, and be wary of the myriad threats that could fell both the administration and the last standing figure in a family political dynasty.“She is the last possible qualified family member who can be involved in politics. This is the main drive for her performance to reach success and to not jeopardise herself and her family,” said Mr Somchai Srisuthiyakorn, the former election commissioner of Thailand.”Therefore, she has to take the highest levels of precaution, be thorough and think twice, more than under normal circumstances,” he said.  
Ms Paetongtarn already had to field questions about whether she would abandon one of Pheu Thai’s key election policy promises, a digital wallet scheme that promised to stimulate the economy and ease the cost of living for citizens. 
The wallet would provide 10,000 Thai baht (US$290) to every Thai over the age of 16 for purchases at local businesses. But nearly one year into government, the policy, estimated to cost some US$14 billion, has remained stalled despite about 30 million Thais registering for it.
At her first press conference as national leader on Sunday, Ms Paetongtarn said the government would need to do more “study and listen to additional options”, but said the scheme would not be abandoned. 
Questions have lingered over how the policy would be financed, its impacts on inflation and its effectiveness in stimulating a sluggish economy.  
There are also broader legal questions about the scheme, presenting possible tripwires for an inexperienced leader. 
“There are concerns around this policy, such as possible violations of the State Fiscal and Financial Discipline Act or accusations of inappropriate use of the national budget,” said Mr Somchai.
While the project might still proceed, the government may need to revisit who the handouts target – namely adjusting it to cover only vulnerable individuals – and where the money is sourced, he added.
Public sentiment is also at stake for Pheu Thai, whose popularity has waned in recent years and which took power despite not winning the last election, according to Dr Yuttaporn Issarachai, a political scientist from Sukhothai Thammathirat Open University. 
“The digital wallet is a crossroad for Pheu Thai. In one way, if they wish to backtrack they cannot because they have to be accountable to the public,” he said. “If this is cancelled it will surely affect the public’s trust in Pheu Thai.” 
The government will be aiming to make sure it is watertight from legal scrutiny to ensure its own survival. That could result in extended consultations or major delays to other major policies, rather than outright cancellations, said Dr Titipol Phakdeewanich, director at the Regional Center for Human Rights at Ubon Ratchathani University.
“Khun Thaksin and Khun Ung Ing probably do not want to take the risk of making legal mistakes,” he said, referring to Ms Paetongtarn by her nickname.
Other populist policies championed by Pheu Thai before the election, such as raising the minimum wage, have also yet to be enacted. 
To change such a law requires agreement among multiple stakeholders, including the private sector. Reaching consensus has proven a challenge that has again eroded public confidence in the party’s populist agenda, Mr Somchai said.
“Even though there is a clear policy, this change is quite hard. I think in the future, the election committee should ban the use of minimum wage increase as a policy for political campaigns,” he said.
Meanwhile, plans to reform the recreational use of cannabis in the country remain embedded in tricky coalition negotiations. 
The same divisions on the issue that persisted for Mr Srettha will be present now for Ms Paetongtarn, with various factions in the government adopting different stances and pro-cannabis groups threatening to hold protests against the government’s pledge to add the drug back to the country’s narcotics list by this year-end.
Holding the line with a key coalition partner – the Bhumjaithai party – on the cannabis issue will be important to make the changes promised and maintain broader government strength and unity, the analysts said.
“I think there is a need to compromise and negotiate in order to avoid conflict,” Mr Somchai said.
This period of political turmoil could also see attention diverted from other key policies like the Kra Isthmus land bridge megaproject, the analysts said.
After being sworn into power in August last year, Mr Srettha embarked on a global roadshow of sorts, pushing an ambitious plan to develop a land bridge project that would connect the Andaman Sea with the Thai Gulf. 
The aim of the project is to create a new international trade route, avoiding the congested Malacca Straits between Indonesia and Malaysia and shortening travel time for vessels.
The US$36 billion land bridge would require vast amounts of international investment and has faced opposition from local residents and environmental groups, which threatens to undermine its viability going forward, Dr Yuttaporn said.
“I believe that Khun Ung Ing will continue working in the same way as Khun Srettha, as they had previously discussed this topic. But it is not an easy task,” he said.
“They will have to find a way to implement this policy without impacting these groups and make it sustainable.”
“It remains questionable and lately it seems to have quieted down as well,” Dr Titipol said. “There is uncertainty, which also derives from the political climate. I don’t think they will push through if the force of opposition is strong.”
He said attention could shift instead to other signature concepts linked to Mr Thaksin, like the two-decade old “Village Fund” policy aimed at revitalising rural communities through loan funds, or expanding coverage of universal healthcare.
But for Ms Paetongtarn, following that strategic direction would do little to fix Pheu Thai’s increasingly unpopular public image in recent times, Dr Titipol said. And her leadership and ideas will be assumed to have been conceived by her influential father.
“The impression in many people’s minds and feelings is that Pheu Thai does not have a firm standpoint (and) the family’s interest is the priority; the interest of the Shinawatra dynasty is above the interest of the country,” he said.
“She will have a good team and advisers, which is normal for a prime minister to have, but for her it is more than that. She has her father. 
“It is the return of Thaksin in the name of Paetongtarn.”  
Additional reporting by Grissarin Chungsiriwat.